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Kamis, 10 Oktober 2013

WIG20 Futures H4


Poprzedni wpis o indeksie znajduje sie tutaj:
http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2013/09/wig20-h4-futures.html

Wskazywałem w nim na możliwość odbicia od poziomu 78%Fibo po zakończonej korekcie fali (ii) zielonej, na co dodatkowo wskazywał tza: Stopping Volume.

Na chwilę obecną licznik przedstawia się nastepująco: strefa SUPPLY na poziomie 2486 - 2504 stanowi relatwynie mocną barierę cenową i w zasadzie dopiero jej wybicie będzie potwierdzeniem dalszych wzrostów. Uwaga na fałszywe wybicie (fakey bars and setups).


Powodzenia,
Seb

Nifty H1


NSE Nifty H1 Update om 10/10/2013:
Choppy and overlaping price action indicates that wave (b) is still in progress and now level of 78%Fibo is the one to be focused on:
-if broken, then there is a high chance golden trend line might be tested.
0 if rejected, then a possible sell of might happen to the levels indicated on chart.


IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSYS PLEASE VOTE FOR ME ON “ANALYST OF THE YEAR” CONTEST HERE:


EUR/USD H1


There is still one more wave to the downside missing here: wave (v).
So, according to this count there is a sell zone of 1.3527 - 1.3537  and SL order can be place just above this zone because in case of a upper breakout the main count is invalidated and alternate black count is in play. This alternate count indicates deeper correction in wave alt:(2). First possible level to finish it is Weekly Pivot level @ 1.3562.


Take care,
Seb


Rabu, 09 Oktober 2013

Nikkei 225 Futures Daily 09/10/2013


The upside triangle breakout is almost here as the price is currently trading between 61.8 and 68.5 percent of whole triangle length. This is statistically the most often upside breakout point.
As long as green trend line holds bias is upside.

Take care,
Seb


GBP/USD H1 09/10/2013

There are still some waves to the downside left, just as per chart.

1.6014 should hold and it looks like a good level to load even more shorts.

Target levels are 1.5904 and if this one is broken then 1.5878.
Please notice that there is still possible upside wave development on this point in time.

Take care,
Seb

Selasa, 08 Oktober 2013

USD/JPY H4 & Daily Analysys

On Daily time frame main count and  two different alternate counts are present:
 Main count shows that wave 1 blue circle is done and now it is correction time that might be in shape of (W)(X)(Y) Correction and the projected level would be 90.81 - 91.00 for the bottom of wave 2 blue circle. The alternate version of this scenario is slighty different: wave 2 blue circle is already done (instead of wave (W)) and now first wave to the upside is present ( alt:1) and corrective cycle waves ABC might have bottomed on 96.65 level as the low of wave alt:2.
Second interpretation is all about the top for wave (X), that looks like a either ABC OR Triangle itself. The last wave of the Triangle has not been finished yet and the potential level for this wave is around 100 mark.  Then sell off in wave (Y) is expected.
Last one possible count points out that the top of wave 1 blue circle is really wave alt:3 high and this whole overlaping & time consuming structure is really wave 4 Triangle of the higher degree.

Judging by the lower time frame wave development and momentum analysys we can observe that on H4 chart AO oscilator is pointing out a multiple Bullish Divergence so some kind of relief rally OR even a new wave up should be anticipated.
Bullish wedge on H4 chart seems to support this view.

Good luck,
Seb




SP500 H4 Analysys


Please click on the link here:
http://blog.mt5.com/elliottfxtrader/2013/10/07/sp500-h4-07-10-2013/

Thnak You,
Seb

Minggu, 06 Oktober 2013

NSE Nifty Daily & H4 Elliott Wave Analysys


General Overview for 06/10/2013

I am looking at a larger term picture of Nifty. While at this stage it appears that several alternatives are present, I am giving the highest weight to the count I have attached here.

Lok at the Daily chart below and You will see that this index in a large bull market that one can label as an impulsive wave. End of the rally on 2008 is the top for wave 3 ( with fifth wave extension of a wave (5)) and then price has made a sharp decline slighty below the low of  wave (4) which is typical after wave (5) extension. After sharp decline price has made another five waves to the upside and almost took out the high of wave 3. Overall the five wave structure of a higher degree has been finished (labeled as wave i and now price is in corrective decline. The first wave down of the decline has been made ( wave A) and now price is about to finish wave B of the upward smaller corrective cycle. Because it can be clearly seen that this AB structure is an overlaping and time consuming THREE waves correction, my speculation is, that apossible shape of wave ii will be in ABC Irregular Flat shape. So now I'm waiting for wave B to the upside to finish and then five wave sell-off in wave C of wave ii.



On the lower time frames  there is a possibble low in wave (B) of ann extended (A)(B)(C) Irregular Flat pattern. The top of this pattern will be the top of wave B and then sell-off should happen





On even lower time frame (H4), one can see that first five impulsive waves to the upside has been done and now market is in corrective cycle wave 2. The most probabble pattern for this simple correction is ZigZag and if 61%Fibo is the top for wave (b), then equall legs target for wave (a)=(c) is indicated on chart. Nevertheless, there is another possible wave progression that include depper retracement in wave (b) up to 78.6Fibo level and thn small sell-off in wave (c). This would mean the GAP zone of orange rectangel will not be broken and reversal should be expected sooner.


Support/Resistance:
6233- Swing High
6174 - Wave 1 high
6085 - purple 78%Fibo
6020 - purple 61%Fibo
5763 - Technical Support | GAP HIGH LEVEL |
5700 - GAP LOW LEVEL
5662 - One2One Equall Legs target #1 for wave (c)
5637 - 50%Fibo | Target#2 for wave (c)
5511 - 61%Fibo

Trading Recommendations:
Bullish outlook for this market is evident in wave progression so long positions should be in play once the correction is over.
The target for the wave B is 
- 6682 - 6748 if B is 23.6%Extension of Irregular Flat
-7004 - 7118  if B is 38.6% Extension of Irregular Flat.