Swiss Economy Grows More Than Forecast on Better Exports

Switzerland’s economy expanded more than economists expected in the third quarter, with exports helping it perform better than neighboring Germany.

Swiss gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent in the three months through September from the second quarter, when it expanded by the same amount, the Secretariat for Economic Affairs in Bern said in a statement today. That beats the 0.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 19 economists.

The Swiss National Bank (SNBN) set a cap on the franc of 1.20 per in September 2011, citing the risk of deflation and a recession. Since then, the Swiss economy has seen a single quarter of contraction, while the debt-plagued euro area only emerged from an 18-month slump in the middle of this year.

If the SNB were to tighten monetary policy reflecting better growth, “it would have immediate negative domestic effects,” said Christian Lips, an economist at NordLB in Hanover. “Looking forward, neither the cap nor the rates can be changed before year-end 2014,” given weak growth in the neighboring euro area, Switzerland’s top trading partner, he said.

The franc, which has slipped two percent against the euro since the start of the year as the bloc’s debt crisis has waned, was trading unchanged at 1.2324 per euro at 8:43 a.m. in Zurich, off an intra-day high of 1.2321.

U.K. Recovery Seen at Risk as Rebalancing Eludes Economy

Britain’s consumer and housing-driven recovery, the fastest among Group of Seven nations, risks losing steam unless export growth picks up, economists said.

While the economy grew the fastest in more than two years in the three months through September, the expansion was led by consumer spending, construction and stock building. Net trade knocked 0.9 percentage point off GDP, the most since the second quarter of 2011.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney this week extolled the strength of the economy’s revival, while acknowledging that weak growth in the euro area may weigh on the export outlook and limit rebalancing of the economy. Part of the domestic demand is linked to a revival in the housing market, which has fueled concerns of a brewing bubble. Carney will address those risks at a press conference in London today.

“The consumer is a big part of the economy, so it’s always going to be an important component of growth but it shouldn’t be the sole component,” said Carl Astorri, senior economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club. “To get the stronger recovery that we’re forecasting for next year does rely on it broadening out.”

The U.K. economy grew 0.8 percent in the last quarter, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday. Investment in private-sector dwellings climbed 5.9 percent, the most in two years. Consumer spending increased for an eighth consecutive quarter. Exports, which account for about one third of the economy, fell 2.4 percent, the most in more than two years.

Brazil Lifts Selic to 10% on High Inflation, Low Confidence

Brazil’s central bank raised its key interest rate for a sixth time, extending the world’s biggest tightening cycle as a weaker currency and widening budget deficit spur inflation pressures.

The bank’s board, led by President Alexandre Tombini, voted 8-0 to raise the Selic today to 10 percent from 9.5 percent, as forecast by 50 of the 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Two analysts predicted a 25 basis-point increase.

The decision sought to “give continuation to the adjustment of the benchmark rate that began in the April 2013 meeting,” policy makers said in their statement posted on the central bank’s website. Board members removed from the statement a phrase used after the previous decision saying the increase would ensure inflation’s continued slowing in 2014.

Brazil’s central bank has raised borrowing costs by 275 basis points since April as the real dropped the most among major currencies and deteriorating fiscal accounts sparked concern of a credit downgrade. Investor pessimism on Brazil’s economy means there is no room to let up on inflation, according to Enestor Dos Santos, principal economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria and the top Selic forecaster according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The burden is on the central bank’s shoulders,” Dos Santos said by phone before today’s decision. “The central bank is fighting to regain lost credibility. Inflation expectations for next year remain elevated.”

Swap rates on the contract maturing in January 2015, the most traded in Sao Paulo today, fell one basis point to 10.82 percent. The real fell 1.5 percent to 2.3305 per dollar, extending its decline this year to 12 percent.

EUR/USD to remain neutral

Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank is expecting EUR/USD to remain neutral to supported.

Key Quotes

“Despite the updraft from the GBP, dovish ECB rhetoric may also continue to place a damper on excessive upside against the USD. “

“Look for initial support on dips around the 55-day MA (1.3548) while key resistance is expected on approach of 1.3600 ahead of the EZ inflation number tomorrow. “

Euro Rises for Fifth Day Versus Yen on German Accord

The euro strengthened for a fifth day against the yen as lawmakers in Germany, the 17-nation region’s biggest economy, reached a coalition accord on wages and spending increases without increasing taxes.

The shared currency rose versus all except one of its 16 major peers as the deal ended the longest period of coalition talks in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s time in office. The dollar climbed against the yen before U.S. data forecast to show durable-goods orders fell, while consumer sentiment was higher than initially estimated, signaling a mixed recovery that may keep the Federal Reserve from reducing stimulus. The Thai baht fell after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates.

“The euro was boosted by the news that Germany is close to reaching a coalition accord,” said Shinichiro Kadota, a foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Plc in Tokyo. “I don’t think the euro will extend gains much from here.”

The euro advanced 0.4 percent to 137.97 yen at 8:12 a.m. in London, extending its gain during the past five days to 2.6 percent. The common currency was little changed at $1.3576 after climbing to $1.3599, the strongest level since Oct. 31. The dollar rose 0.4 percent to 101.63 yen.

Merkel clinched the coalition agreement with the Social Democratic Party that calls for a national minimum wage and pledges to increase spending on pensions and infrastructure.

The accord reached shortly before 5 a.m. in Berlin today after 17 hours of negotiations sets Merkel on track for a third term leading the nation until 2017. The agreement must still be passed by the entire SPD, which plans a referendum among its roughly 470,000 members.

The baht weakened 0.2 percent to 32.145 per dollar after weakening 1.6 percent in the previous six days.

Infinity Studying Failed Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange

A private equity firm backed by the China Development Bank Corp. is studying the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange Ltd., a commodities market that suspended operations this year, for investment opportunities.

“I’m going in as a director to simply get an understanding,” said Jianrui Xiong, a Hong Kong-based venture partner at Infinity Group, which manages 10 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) in assets. “I want to understand whether this company can solve its previous issues and whether it’ll be a clean company going forward. If it is clean, then we may have some investment opportunities.”

An investment by Infinity could help revive the exchange, which surrendered its trading license in May after failing to attract enough revenue to support operations. Barry Cheung, the largest shareholder and chairman, is seeking to raise funds to repay debts and unpaid wages.

Police investigated Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange, also known as HKMEx, after the regulator said it found suspected financial irregularities. Cheung said the bourse is a victim, having been provided with financial documents it didn’t know were false.

Thailand Unexpectedly Cuts Rate as Protests Crimp Outlook

Thailand unexpectedly cut its key interest rate for a second time this year, as escalating anti-government protests threaten investor confidence and local demand, hurting the nation’s growth outlook. The baht fell.

The Bank of Thailand cut its one-day bond repurchase rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25 percent, with monetary policy committee members voting six-to-one in favor of the decision, it said in Bangkok today. All 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted the rate would be held.

Thai protesters this week besieged government ministries and urged civil servants to join a push to oust Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, an escalation of rallies that began a month ago against an amnesty for most political offenses stretching back to the 2006 coup that ousted her brother Thaksin. The economy expanded a less-than-estimated 1.3 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months.

“The central bank seems to be concerned about growth and the sluggish exports, and on top of that, there’s the political concern,” said Kozo Hasegawa, a Bangkok-based foreign-exchange trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “Should the protests prolong and impact government spending, tourism and the economy further, they could consider another cut.”

The baht reversed earlier gains to slip 0.2 percent to 32.16 against the dollar as of 3:25 p.m. local time, the weakest level since Sept. 11. The SET Index of shares extended gains, climbing 0.6 percent.

Higher Risks

Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, who oversaw a deadly crackdown on Thaksin supporters when he was deputy premier in 2010, has called for a nationwide program of civil disobedience to bring down the administration of Yingluck, whose Pheu Thai party won a parliamentary majority in elections in 2011. A confidence vote is scheduled for tomorrow.

The Thai central bank today cut its 2013 growth forecast to about 3 percent from 3.7 percent earlier, and its 2014 estimate to about 4 percent from 4.8 percent. “There are higher downside risks to growth stemming from delays in government investment and fragile private confidence, which could be compounded by the ongoing political situation,” Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan said at a briefing today. “Given the benign inflation outlook and moderating household credit growth, there is room for monetary policy to mitigate downside risks to the economy.”

Yingluck’s administration has tried to speed up budget disbursement and boost local demand as plans to spend 2 trillion baht ($62 billion) on infrastructure and 350 billion baht on water management projects have stalled. Consumer confidence in October fell to the lowest since March 2012, while exports slipped for a second straight month, data earlier today showed.

The state forecasting agency this month cut its full-year expansion estimate to 3 percent from a range of 3.8 percent to 4.3 percent, and said it expected no export growth this year.

“Political instability has retarded progress on infrastructure development and thereby constrained Thailand’s growth,” Fitch Ratings said in a statement earlier today. “Moreover, political noise could increase investor skittishness as the U.S. Fed’s tapering of quantitative easing draws closer.”

WTI Oil Drops for a Fourth Day as U.S. Crude Inventories Advance

West Texas Intermediate fell for a fourth day after industry data showed crude stockpiles rose for a ninth week in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer.

Futures slid as much as 0.3 percent in New York. Crude inventories increased by 6.92 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday. An Energy Information Administration report today is projected to show supplies climbed by 750,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep its production quota unchanged at a meeting next week in Vienna, a separate survey shows.

“The key for the market will be those numbers” from the EIA, said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney who predicts OPEC will keep its output target unchanged at the Dec. 4 gathering. “New supply in the U.S. is causing a build-up of inventories.”

WTI for January delivery dropped as much as 32 cents to $93.36 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $93.39 at 3:45 p.m. Singapore time. The contract lost 0.4 percent to $93.68 yesterday. The volume of all futures traded was more than double the 100-day average.

Brent for January settlement gained 2 cents to $110.90 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $17.51 to WTI. The spread was $17.20 yesterday, the widest in more than eight months based on closing prices.

EUR/USD capped by 1.3590

The shared currency is inching higher on Thursday, with the EUR/USD advancing through 1.3580 after testing lows near 1.3560 overnight.

EUR/USD focus on German, EMU data

Despite the holiday in the US and the absence of a docket, the releases in the euro area should be relevant enough to keep investors entertained during most part of the session. The final revision of Spanish GDP figures is expected to show a 0.1% expansion inter-quarter of the Mediterranean economy, finally leaving the recession territory. German employment figures are due next, with consensus expecting the jobless rate to stay put at 6.9% during November. EMU’s gauges of Economic/Consumer/Business Confidence will follow, with prior surveys pointing to mixed results. So, with the pair well supported around 1.3560 and mixed results on the cards and having tested 1.3600 yesterday, decent readings today would be supportive of the prevailing bid tone around the EUR, allowing another test of the 1.3600 handle.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is up 0.03% at 1.3578 with the next resistance at 1.3613 (high Nov.27) followed by 1.3628 (61.8% of 1.3822-1.3295) and finally 1.3696 (low Oct.30). On the downside, a dip beyond 1.3558 (low Nov.27) would target 1.3515 (low Nov.26) en route to 1.3504 (MA21d).

GDP rises 1.9% in Q3

On an annuual basis Swiss GDP increased 1.9% in Q3, following a 2.5% rise registered the previous quarter, according to data released today the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO. This result higher than market consensus of +1.7%.

Quarter-over-quarter GDP rose 0.5% in Q3, following +0.5% in Q2 and slightly above expectations of 0.4% growth.

Brazil Extending World’s Biggest Rate Rise to Regain Credibility

Brazil’s central bank probably will raise the benchmark interest rate for a sixth straight meeting in an effort to convince investors that policy makers are serious about slowing inflation back to its target.

Policy makers led by central bank President Alexandre Tombini will lift the Selic rate to 10 percent from 9.50 percent today, according to 50 of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Two analysts expect a 0.25 percentage-point boost. The bank is scheduled to announce its decision after 6:00 p.m. local time.

Before embarking on the world’s biggest interest rate increase this year, policy makers slashed borrowing costs to a record even as consumer price increases exceeded the 4.5 percent goal. The past decisions coupled with higher public spending led investors to speculate the government had abandoned its inflation target, hurting the central bank’s credibility, former bank President Carlos Langoni said. Now, the effort to tame above-target inflation is also being undercut by a weaker currency and a widening budget gap. “The central bank is trying to make up for past mistakes,” Langoni, who is head of the World Economic Center at Fundacao Getulio Vargas, said in an interview at his office in Rio de Janeiro. “Since they lost credibility, they probably have to overshoot the interest rate.”

Analysts forecast Tombini will fail to meet his pledge to slow inflation in 2014 from 2013 as the biggest decline amid major currencies in the past six months reignites price increases. They predict inflation will accelerate to 5.92 percent in 2014 from 5.82 percent this year, according to a central bank survey published Nov. 25.

Yen strengthens after BoJ minutes

The yen strengthened in Asian trade Tuesday despite three of the nine Bank of Japan board members seeing a greater downside risk to the economy than the majority view of balanced risk, according to the minutes of the Oct. 31 policy meeting released earlier in the day.

USD/JPY traded at 101.49, down 0.19%, in a range of 101.34 - 101.73 after the minutes.

Bank of Japan board member Takehiro Sato said downside risks to weaker prices is somewhat higher than the upside, while colleague Takahide Kiuchi repeated his call for greater price target flexibly. Sayuri Shirai said attention needs to be paid to downside risks to economic activity and prices.

The Bank of Japan is aiming for sustained annual inflation at 2% by 2015 through an aggressive easing policy that is supposed to work in combination with government economic reforms.

At the meeting, the Bank of Japan board, by a unanimous vote, kept the bank's policy target unchanged as expected.

AUD/USD traded at 0.9191, up 0.32%, shrugging off remarks by Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Philip Lowe that the currency should weaken over time.

The Australian dollar could fall further in the period ahead as investments in Australia decline, but as the terms of trade is expected to remain high the exchange rate will be high on a historical basis, Lowe said in remarks at a question and answer session following a speech.

Iran's decision to rein in its nuclear ambitions enticed investors out of safe-haven yen and other positions on Monday and sparked demand for the dollar, which tends to edge lower when U.S.-Iranian tensions flare up.

Weekend talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran ended in agreement that halted advancements in Iran's nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions against Tehran.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iran will stop enriching uranium beyond 5%, and neutralize its stockpile of uranium enriched beyond that point.

Tehran will also grant more access to its facilities to nuclear inspectors in exchange for no new sanctions for six months.

Iran will also receive sanctions relief worth approximately USD7 billion in trade on oil, auto and airplane parts, gold and precious metals for six months.

Trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market in the past two years.

World powers have accused Iran of using its nuclear program to secretly develop nuclear weapons, an assertion the country has consistently denied.

The news offset otherwise bearish data for the dollar in the U.S. housing sector that revealed pending home sales fell unexpectedly in October.

In a report, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in October, disappointing market expectations for a 1.3% gain.

Year-on-year, pending home sales fell at annualized rate of 2.2% last month, outpacing expectations for a 1% decline after rising 2% in September.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.85, down 0.13%.

On Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity as well as a report on housing starts. The nation is also to release private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation.

USD/JPY ranges into European session

USD/JPY has ranged overnight and into the European session, posting a high at 101.74 and a low at 101.33 and presently trading at 101.45, down -0.01% on the days trading.

Yen on defensive overnight

Overnight Japanese Economy Minister Aso spoke to the media and claimed that market principles were reflected in the weak yen under Abenomics, and that momentum is rising to reach a year end conclusion too TPP talks. Further, the government announced that it would end four decades of rice price support for farmers. Elsewhere the latest BoJ minutes were released showing that board members agreed that the 2% inflation target would be reached by the latter half of the production period, but also seeing downside risks to the economy too. They added their belief that higher corporate earnings would feed through to higher salaries for workers, supporting consumption ahead.

What are today’s key USD/JPY levels?

Today’s central pivot point is at 101.5145 with support for the pair below at 101.0990 (S1), 100.7195 (S2) and 100.3040 (S3), and resistances above at 101.8940 (R1), 102.3095 (R2) and 102.6890 (R3). Special attention should be paid to the price range 101.46-101.80 where several technical levels are confluent today.

GBP/USD inching higher

The bullish momentum in the sterling is now gathering steam, lifting the GBP/USD to the vicinity of 1.6200 the figure on Tuesday.

GBP/USD attention on the Inflation Report Hearings

The risk appetite is reining in the markets in the European morning, allowing the pair to break above the recent attempt of consolidation between 1.6040 and 1.6060. In today’s main event for the pound, BoE’s Carney, Bean and Dale will testify before the Treasury Committee on the last Quarterly Inflation Report, although consensus almost ruled out a different tone from the last report. “We expect the BoE to repeat that the unexpectedly strong growth momentum is the reason that the MPC lowered its unemployment rate projection and that there could be a case for not raising the Bank Rate immediately at the 7% unemployment threshold”, observed Signe Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.

GBP/USD key levels

The pair is now up 0.20% at 1.6186 with the next resistance at 1.6241 (high Nov.25) ahead of 1.6248 (high Oct.25) and then 1.6258 (high Oct.23). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.6134 (low Nov.25) would target 1.6105 (MA10d) en route to 1.6081 (MA50d).

Europe flat ahead of BoE inflation report hearing

European indices are expected to open relatively flat on Tuesday, with FTSE and CAC futures a couple of points lower, while DAX futures are slightly higher. It’s looking like being another quiet day in the financial markets, similar to what we saw on Monday, with trading volumes being reduced as a result of a lack of economic data or market moving news. Today is looking no different, particularly in the European session, when no medium or high impact data is scheduled for release. The only noteworthy event this morning will be the inflation report hearing, when BoE Governor Mark Carney will testify, along with other members of the MPC, in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee. While this can bring with it a certain amount of volatility, as MPC members go into more detail about certain aspects of recent policy decisions, I’m not expecting much from the testimony today. The main reason for this is simply that Carney and the MPC have been very transparent about what they expect from the economy and how they intend to react to it, particularly at the inflation report press conference a couple of weeks ago. They provided the new forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment and stated that they will stick with the initial forward guidance, despite the revised forecasts showing unemployment dropping to 7% much earlier than originally expected. I’m not sure what we can learn from today’s testimony that we don’t already know, although that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pay attention. These things have a tendency to surprise us when we’re least expecting it. Aside from this, we’ll have to wait for the US session this afternoon for the markets to pick up, but even then it’s expected to remain relatively quiet. What we’re seeing this week is the calm before the storm, with next week bringing a number of central bank meetings, including the RBA, ECB and the BoE, the Fed Chair nomination, the Beige Book and a large number of economic releases, including the all important US jobs report on Friday. What this means for this week is that we’ll probably continue to see the likes of the S&P and the Dow grinding higher and hitting new record highs along the way, but when it comes to the end of the week, investors may become a little more risk averse. That said, this could depend on what we get from the data and whether it changes peoples view that the government shutdown in October had no direct impact on the economy, and more importantly, consumer and business confidence. We have some data being released later that could impact people’s view on this, starting with housing starts and building permits for September and October. While this is less likely to have a significant impact on housing than say, consumer spending or business investment, it can still have some impact. I don’t expect that to be the case though, with both actually seen improving slightly compared to August. The biggest release today will be the November consumer confidence figure. This should give important insight into whether the shutdown and near-default had any lasting impact on consumer sentiment, which could then affect spending. Last month we saw a huge drop in the figure, from 80.2 to 71.2 in response to the shutdown. Although this was then followed by retail sales that exceeded expectations, rising 0.4%, which goes to show that while this is a good indicator of future consumer behaviour, it’s not always reliable. That said, I expect today’s figure to better reflect the October retail sales figure, which means the expected figure of 72.9 could be a little conservative. Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 3 points, the CAC down 1 points and the DAX up 7 points

Strong Euro to Cut Region’s 2014 Growth

The euro, the second best-performing major currency this year, has increased so much that it will weigh on economic growth in the euro region going into 2014, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.’s Jens Nordvig. The strength of the 17-nation shared currency, which has increased 2.4 percent versus the dollar year-to-date, the most after Denmark’s krone, will trim euro area growth by 0.5 percent in 2014, said Nordvig. The shared currency was the fifth-worst performer among the greenback’s 16 most-traded counterparts in 2012.

“If you look at how much the euro has moved, and the impact that’s going to have on exports, it’s starting to be a real issue,” Nordvig, the New York-based managing director of currency research at Nomura, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio’s “Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Michael McKee. “Last year, it was a dilemma about coming up with policies that really stated very clearly the euro is here to stay. It’s an ironic situation.”

The euro depreciated 0.4 percent to $1.3508 at 12:19 p.m. in New York after earlier falling as much as 0.5 percent. The shared currency rose to $1.3832 on Oct. 25, its highest level since November 2011.

Europe’s currency climbed to a four-year high against the yen on Nov. 19 after a European Central Bank board member said policy makers must be “very careful” about using negative interest rates to counter low inflation.

The ECB is the only major central bank that hasn’t entertained the idea of quantitative easing, which means it has to consider different ways to come across as dovish in order to stem the rise in the euro, according to Nordvig.

“It’s absolutely crucial that the ECB signals more clearly that they have more tools and are willing to use them as needed,” Nordvig said. “We should see urgency, and I think hopefully the ECB will start to get more aggressive.”

The 17-nation euro has gained 6.8 percent this year, making it the best performer out of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar gained 4 percent and the yen slipped the most, 13 percent.

Euro Reaches Highest This Month on Asian Stocks

The euro touched its highest level this month as Asian stocks pared losses and lawmakers in Germany, the 17-nation region’s biggest economy, reached a coalition accord on wages and spending increases.

The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index held a loss from yesterday before figures that may show jobless claims increased and durable goods orders fell, while U.S. consumer sentiment improved, signaling a mixed recovery that may keep the Federal Reserve from reducing stimulus this year. The euro strengthened versus most of its 16 major counterparts amid speculation a report this week will show a pick up in inflation, reducing the need for the European Central Bank to expand monetary easing.

“The euro was boosted by the news that Germany is close to reaching a coalition accord and after the currency broke above key psychological level,” said Shinichiro Kadota, a foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Plc in Tokyo. “I don’t think euro will extend gains much from here.”

The euro bought $1.3583 at 6:50 a.m. in London after climbing to $1.3599, the strongest since Oct. 31. It gained 0.3 percent to 137.89 yen after touching 138.16, the highest since October 2009. The dollar added 0.3 percent to 101.54 yen.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares pared its decline to 0.1 percent from as much as 0.2 percent earlier. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8 percent.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel clinched a coalition agreement with the Social Democrats that calls for a national minimum wage and pledges to increase spending on pensions and infrastructure without raising taxes.

Turkey Pileup Signaling Discounts for Thanksgiving

The Henningsen Cold Storage Co. warehouse in Stilwell, Oklahoma, was so jammed with frozen turkeys from the likes of Butterball LLC and Cargill Inc. this year that manager Scott Mayberry turned down requests to store about 1 million more birds, or double his inventory. “We didn’t have any room,” said Mayberry, who manages 3.5 million cubic feet of space that is the size of two Home Depot Inc. (HD) stores and usually holds as much as 20 million pounds (9,072 metric tons) of frozen turkeys before the Thanksgiving holiday in November, the peak for U.S. demand.

Rising output last year and slowing sales left domestic stockpiles tracked by the government at four-year highs in August and September. That signals deeper seasonal discounts on retail prices that are the highest on record going back to 1980, because about 85 percent of the 46 million birds Americans eat at Thanksgiving meals are frozen rather than fresh, according to the National Turkey Federation. “We overproduced a bit in 2012, and we had quite a few excess birds left over in freezers,” said Tom Elam, the president of food-industry consultant FarmEcon LLC in Carmel, Indiana.

U.S. warehouses held 325.34 million pounds of frozen whole turkeys in September and 335.55 million pounds in August, the highest for each month since 2009, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. Stockpiles typically peak at that time of year in preparation for Thanksgiving, said David Harvey, a USDA economist.

Canadian Dollar Falls as Oil Prices Drop on Iran Deal

The Canadian Dollar dropped to its lowest level in four months as the price of oil, Canada’s biggest export, fell after Iran and world powers reached an interim deal to set limits on its nuclear program.

The currency fell against the majority of its most-traded peers in the wake of the sixth-month agreement, which offers Iran about $7 billion in relief from sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, while leaving in place banking and financial measures that have hampered its crude exports. World powers will continue negotiating for a more comprehensive deal to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons in exchange for ending sanctions.

“There’s a longer-term view being built in there that this is going to turn open the spigot for Iranian crude oil production which would obviously impact crude oil prices negatively,” said Mark Frey, chief market strategist at Cambridge Mercantile Group, a global foreign exchange and payments provider, by phone from Victoria. “In the short term, yeah I think oil is going to trade heavy, and I think it’s going to hurt the commodity currencies and I think you’re going to see that in the Canadian dollar.”

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell 0.3 percent to C$1.0543 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. The currency earlier touched C$1.0583 per U.S. dollar, the lowest since July 8. One loonie buys 94.85 U.S. cents.

Implied Volatility

The cost to insure against declines in the loonie against its U.S. counterpart touched the highest point in almost two weeks. The three-month so-called 25-delta risk-reversal rate rose to 1.3475 percent after earlier touching 1.375 percent, the highest since Oct. 15. Risk reversals measure the premium on options contracts to sell Canadian dollars versus buying U.S. contracts that do the opposite. The 2103 average is 1.26 percent.

Implied volatility for three-month options on the U.S. dollar against its Canadian peer touched its highest point in almost 10 weeks. It reached 6.54 percent, the highest intraday level since Sept. 18. The measure is used to set option prices and gauge the expected pace of currency swings. The 2013 average is 6.69 percent.

Futures on crude oil fell 0.7 percent to $94.17 per barrel in New York trading.

“Canada, of course, has been overwhelmed by the drop in oil,” said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank International by phone from London. “That factor alone is enough to dampen the Canadian dollar, but in the medium term, if lower oil prices come through in better growth data that will be good for Canada, as well as everyone else.”

Iranian Agreement

Oil exports from the Islamic republic will be held to about 1 million barrels a day under sanctions that remain in force after Iran and six world powers reached an agreement yesterday in Geneva, according to the White House.

The agreement offers what President Barack Obama called targeted relief from sanctions, all of which can be imposed again if Iran doesn’t stick with its end of the bargain. It is intended as a first step to a comprehensive accord to be reached in six months to constrain Iran’s nuclear activities so that it can’t be used to make an atomic weapon, in exchange for a planned lifting of nuclear-related sanctions.

“They see that as maybe opening up the door to more ample global supplies of oil if we can see supplies from Iran eventually lifted,” said Joe Manimbo, a market analyst in Washington at Western Union Business Solutions, a unit of Western Union Co. “So that’s seen as a step in the right direction in terms of global supply, so that’s putting some downward pressure on oil.”

Canada’s benchmark 10-year government bonds rose, with yields falling two-basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.56 percent. The 1.5 percent security maturing in June 2023 added 15 cents to C$91.01.

The loonie has gained 1.3 percent in the last month against nine developed nation currencies tracked by the Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Index. The Australian dollar has had the biggest loss with a 2.7 percent drop while the U.S. dollar posted the biggest gains, rising 2.3 percent.

Counter-trend action in Asia today

Once again on Tuesday, it was Australia and Japan providing the news flow and biggest moves during the Asian session.

Yen sold out – catches bid despite dovish sentiment in BOJ Minutes

The release of the Bank of Japan’s monthly Policy Meeting Minutes Tuesday probably should have meant more downside for the Japanese Yen, but when seemingly everyone in the world is already short or waiting for a rally to get short, there are no sellers to be found and a bounce can occur. That apparently is what may have been the case today.

RBA’s Lowe comments give AUD a brief lift

The Aussie Dollar also caught a little buying interest Monday despite being universally declared in a bear market. In an effort to assign causality to every move that occurs these days, the wires were giving credit for Tuesday’s Aussie upside to comments made by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Phillip Lowe.