KEEP CALM AND VOTE FOR ME WEEK #3

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AUD/USD H4

General Overview for 28/11/2013
The corrective sructure of ABC ZigZag Green in wave 2 red lokks finished. Moreover, the downside progression has retraced 78%Fibo and slighty reversed so far.
As long as there is no nwe low bias is bullish and first level to confirm is Weekly Pivot breakout.

Support/Resistance:
0.9015 - WS1
0.9077 - 78%Fibo
0.9233 - Weekly Pivot
0.9253 - 0.9282 - GAP ZONE
0.9321 - WR1

Trading Recommendations:
As long as there is no new low: breakout of 0.9140 opens the road to 0.9205 and 0.9233.

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Gold XAUUSD H4

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GBP/JPY H4

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USD/JPY H4

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USD/CHF H4

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Goldman to BofA Pitch Venezuela Deals to Drum Up Dollars

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) are among Wall Street firms that offered deals to help Venezuela obtain U.S. dollars amid a plunge in the nation’s foreign reserves.

A swap proposed by Goldman Sachs would provide $1.68 billion in cash and be backed by $1.85 billion of the central bank’s gold, documents obtained by Bloomberg News show. Bank of America said it could be an intermediary for $3 billion in payments to firms seeking U.S. dollars, documents show. Neither deal has been completed, a government official with direct knowledge of the matter said, requesting anonymity because the talks are private.

Dollars are becoming scarce in Venezuela, limiting the supply of products from medicine to toilet paper in a nation that imports about three-quarters of goods it consumes. Foreign reserves dropped 28 percent this year, touching a nine-year low of $20.7 billion this month, largely because 70 percent of the assets are in gold. The metal plunged 26 percent in the period.

“The fact you have dollar shortages is symptomatic of an economy that’s completely broken down,” Robert Abad, who helps oversee $53 billion in emerging-market debt at Western Asset Management Co., said yesterday in a telephone interview from Pasadena, California.

“This is something that’s just incredibly unnecessary, very unfortunate, and the victim of all of this is the real economy, real people.”

Dollar Gains to 6-Month High on December Taper Bet

The dollar rose to a six-month high against the yen as an unexpected drop in U.S. jobless claims and a rise in leading economic indicators added to speculation the Federal Reserve may start reducing stimulus next month.

The euro strengthened to a four-year high against the yen as German lawmakers reached a coalition accord on wages and spending increases without raising taxes, spurring demand for the region’s assets. The Thai baht fell after the central bank cut interest rates,

while the Canadian dollar dropped as crude oil slipped for a fourth day. “The dollar is benefiting from a very small risk of taper in December,” Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in Washington at the currency brokerage Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., said in a phone interview. “I’m still a little skeptical about December tapering. Granted the FOMC meeting minutes was a bit more hawkish than expected, but if you just focus on what Bernanke and Yellen said, the most likely scenario is taper in the first quarter.”

The dollar gained 0.9 percent to 102.16 yen at 5 p.m. in New York and touched 102.19, the strongest level since May 29. It slipped 0.1 percent to $1.3579 against the common currency, having dropped as much as 0.3 percent earlier. The euro advanced 0.9 percent to 138.73 yen after touching 138.79, the highest since June 2009.

The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, rose 0.3 percent to 1,021.55.

Swiss Economy Grows More Than Forecast on Better Exports

Switzerland’s economy expanded more than economists expected in the third quarter, with exports helping it perform better than neighboring Germany.

Swiss gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent in the three months through September from the second quarter, when it expanded by the same amount, the Secretariat for Economic Affairs in Bern said in a statement today. That beats the 0.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 19 economists.

The Swiss National Bank (SNBN) set a cap on the franc of 1.20 per in September 2011, citing the risk of deflation and a recession. Since then, the Swiss economy has seen a single quarter of contraction, while the debt-plagued euro area only emerged from an 18-month slump in the middle of this year.

If the SNB were to tighten monetary policy reflecting better growth, “it would have immediate negative domestic effects,” said Christian Lips, an economist at NordLB in Hanover. “Looking forward, neither the cap nor the rates can be changed before year-end 2014,” given weak growth in the neighboring euro area, Switzerland’s top trading partner, he said.

The franc, which has slipped two percent against the euro since the start of the year as the bloc’s debt crisis has waned, was trading unchanged at 1.2324 per euro at 8:43 a.m. in Zurich, off an intra-day high of 1.2321.

GBP/USD Weekly, Daily, H4 and H1

General Overview for 28/11/2013:
The last labeling with an immediate downside impulsive wave development on H1 chart has been invalidated and price has made new high. This made me to re-visit the charts to find another, better labeling.
The Cable is still in Triangle formation and according to my labeling it is in final stages of lalst wave C  of ABC progression in wave E of a Triangle, SO - a trend reversal is expected very soon.
The targets are on Daily Chart and they make 55pips confluence level:
- One - to - One equal length wave 1 projection ends @ 1.6470.
- 38%Fibo Ext @ 1.6415
From H4 fibo projections I got two zones:
- Zone #1  - 1.6363 - 1.6386
- Zone #2 - 1.6417 - 1.6425

A possible reversal is expected for one of this zones:

Support/Resistance:
1.6369 - WR2
1.6324 - WR1
1.6257 - Intraday Support
1.6239 - Technical Support
1.6190 - Weekly Pivot

Trading Recommendations:
Prepare to enter SHORT SWING positions from zones indicated on charts.

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U.K. Recovery Seen at Risk as Rebalancing Eludes Economy

Britain’s consumer and housing-driven recovery, the fastest among Group of Seven nations, risks losing steam unless export growth picks up, economists said.

While the economy grew the fastest in more than two years in the three months through September, the expansion was led by consumer spending, construction and stock building. Net trade knocked 0.9 percentage point off GDP, the most since the second quarter of 2011.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney this week extolled the strength of the economy’s revival, while acknowledging that weak growth in the euro area may weigh on the export outlook and limit rebalancing of the economy. Part of the domestic demand is linked to a revival in the housing market, which has fueled concerns of a brewing bubble. Carney will address those risks at a press conference in London today.

“The consumer is a big part of the economy, so it’s always going to be an important component of growth but it shouldn’t be the sole component,” said Carl Astorri, senior economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club. “To get the stronger recovery that we’re forecasting for next year does rely on it broadening out.”

The U.K. economy grew 0.8 percent in the last quarter, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday. Investment in private-sector dwellings climbed 5.9 percent, the most in two years. Consumer spending increased for an eighth consecutive quarter. Exports, which account for about one third of the economy, fell 2.4 percent, the most in more than two years.

Canada Dollar Falls to Weakest Since July as Crude Oil Declines

The Canadian Dollar touched the weakest level against its U.S. counterpart since July as the price of crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, declined for a fourth day.

The currency weakened as futures of crude oil fell 1.4 percent to $92.39 per barrel in New York. So-called commodity currencies, which include Canada’s and the Australian and New Zealand dollars also declined. Yields on Treasury (USGG10YR) 10-year notes have increased to 19 basis points more than Canadian debt, from negative nine basis points in January, amid speculation that U.S. policy makers will reduce monetary stimulus earlier than Canadian officials.

The market thinks “the Bank of Canada will lag the Fed in taking away the easier policy,” Ken Dickson, an Edinburgh-based director for foreign exchange at Standard Life

Investments Ltd., which oversees about $291 billion, said in a phone interview. “On that relative basis, we think that will favor the dollar against the Canadian dollar through 2014.”

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell 0.5 percent to C$1.0595 per U.S. dollar at 5:00 p.m. in Toronto, after reaching C$1.0603. One loonie buys 94.38 U.S. cents.

Bond Trade

The nation’s benchmark 10-year government bonds fell, pushing yields up three basis points to 2.55 percent. The price of the 1.5 percent securities maturing in June 2023 declined 20 cents to C$91.23.

BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest asset manager, is recommending Canadian investors bet on a widening gap between short- and long-term debt in anticipation of less U.S. monetary stimulus next year.

Canadian debt maturing in one to three years returned 0.9 percent since May through Nov. 25, compared with losses of 5 percent for bonds with maturities of 10 to 15 years, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show.

Investors should bet against the Canadian currency versus the U.S. dollar, in what Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts in a client note called their third top-trade recommendation for 2014.

The Canadian dollar has lost 3.3 percent this year against nine developed-market peers tracked by the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Index. The U.S. dollar is up 4 percent, while the Australian currency fell 11 percent.

“We’ve seen steady interbank buying of dollar-Canada since today’s open and that appears to be what has pushed us up here,” said George Davis, chief technical analyst for fixed-income and currency strategy in Toronto at Royal Bank of Canada. “Oil also under pressure, which is not helping.”

Brazil Lifts Selic to 10% on High Inflation, Low Confidence

Brazil’s central bank raised its key interest rate for a sixth time, extending the world’s biggest tightening cycle as a weaker currency and widening budget deficit spur inflation pressures.

The bank’s board, led by President Alexandre Tombini, voted 8-0 to raise the Selic today to 10 percent from 9.5 percent, as forecast by 50 of the 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Two analysts predicted a 25 basis-point increase.

The decision sought to “give continuation to the adjustment of the benchmark rate that began in the April 2013 meeting,” policy makers said in their statement posted on the central bank’s website. Board members removed from the statement a phrase used after the previous decision saying the increase would ensure inflation’s continued slowing in 2014.

Brazil’s central bank has raised borrowing costs by 275 basis points since April as the real dropped the most among major currencies and deteriorating fiscal accounts sparked concern of a credit downgrade. Investor pessimism on Brazil’s economy means there is no room to let up on inflation, according to Enestor Dos Santos, principal economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria and the top Selic forecaster according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The burden is on the central bank’s shoulders,” Dos Santos said by phone before today’s decision. “The central bank is fighting to regain lost credibility. Inflation expectations for next year remain elevated.”

Swap rates on the contract maturing in January 2015, the most traded in Sao Paulo today, fell one basis point to 10.82 percent. The real fell 1.5 percent to 2.3305 per dollar, extending its decline this year to 12 percent.

EUR/USD H1

Potential climactic action here, first clues of a weakness in the market.

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Dollar Reaches Six-Month High as Improving Economy Boosts Allure

The dollar touched a six-month high against the yen after signs of improvement in the world’s largest economy boosted the allure of U.S. assets.

The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index was near a two-week high before data next week forecast to show U.S. manufacturing expanded for a sixth month. The euro retreated from a four-year high against the yen as technical indicators signaled its recent gains were excessive. The Australian dollar rallied from a two-month low after business investment unexpectedly grew.

“A string of reasonably positive data in the U.S. is probably going to help the dollar via higher treasury yields,” said Michael Turner, a debt and currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney. Yields on Japanese government bonds “have been falling fairly consistently for the past four or five months and that’s kept the yen fairly weak.”

The dollar was little changed at 102.13 yen as of 6:42 a.m. in London from yesterday, after touching 102.28, the strongest level since May 29. It traded at $1.3583 against the euro from $1.3579. The shared currency was unchanged at 138.73 yen after touching 138.84, the highest since June 2009.

The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major peers, declined 0.1 percent to 1,020.55. It rose 0.3 percent to 1,021.55 yesterday, the highest close since Nov. 12.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield gained three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.74 percent yesterday. U.S. markets are closed for Thanksgiving holiday. Similar-dated Japanese government bonds yielded 0.60 percent today.

EUR/USD to remain neutral

Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank is expecting EUR/USD to remain neutral to supported.

Key Quotes

“Despite the updraft from the GBP, dovish ECB rhetoric may also continue to place a damper on excessive upside against the USD. “

“Look for initial support on dips around the 55-day MA (1.3548) while key resistance is expected on approach of 1.3600 ahead of the EZ inflation number tomorrow. “

CFD Trading: Correlation between Currency Pairs Part 2

In the post CFD Trading: Correlation between Currency Pairs is written about the correlation between the currency pairs.

In this post is illustrated the correlation between the EURUSD and the USDCHF; the correlation between the EURUSD and the USDJYP is also illustrated.

Correlation between EUR/USD and USD/CHF

The chart illustrates the EURUSD and the USDCHF; the EURUSD starts to fall around 3 o’clock and the USDCHF starts to rise around 3 o’clock; the 4, 9 and 18 period moving averages are also crossing each other around 3 o’clock; they are reverse; at the EURUSD chart are the 18 period line above the 4 and 9 period lines; at the USDCHF chart are the 18 period line below the 4 and 9 period lines.

Correlation between EUR/USD and USD/JYP

The chart illustrates the EURUSD and the USDJYP; the EURUSD starts to fall around 3 o’clock and the USDJYP starts to rise around 3 o’clock; the 4, 9 and 18 period moving averages are also crossing each other around 3 o’clock; they are reverse; at the EURUSD chart are the 18 period line above the 4 and 9 period lines; at the USDJYP chart are the 18 period line below the 4 and 9 period lines. 

The charts are illustrative but the print is from a real chart; the correlation between currency pairs is stronger or weaker over a time period. 

AAKRA MONEY EXCHANGE

Head Office

Address: Shop No.32-33,Aakra Centre,Near Jahangir Park,Saddar karachi, Sindh 74000

Telephone:(92 21) 2231777 , (92-21) 2231666

Fax:(92 21) 2231999

ABID CURRENCY

Head Office

Address: Shop # 7,Time Center,Opp.Bilour Plaza,Saddar Peshawar, N.W.F.P

Telephone: (92 91) 5270370

Fax: (92 91) 5275923

AHMAD MONEY CHANGER

Head Office

Address: B-1,Raheem Complex,Main Market,Gulberg-II Lahore, punjab

Telephone:(92 42) 5713421 , (92 42) 5713728

AJMAIR INTERNATIONAL

Head Office

Address: Shop #5,SNC Plaza,Blue Area,Behind Usmania Restaurant islamabad, punjab

Telephone:(92 51) 2275179 , (92-51) 2274424

AL-ABBAS ENTERPRISES

Head Office

Address: Shop #14,Mall Plaza,Near GPO Cantt. rawalpindi,

Telephone:(92 51) 5528383 , (92-51) 5524505

AL-MUZHER MONEY CHANGER

Head Office

Address: 4-Montgomery Road lahore, punjab

Telephone:(92 42) 6363631 , (92 42) 6303378

AL-RAHIM INTERNATIONAL

Head Office

Address: 3 Al-Rahim Towers,I.I. Chundrigar Road karachi, Sindh 74000

Telephone:(92 21) 2440546 , (92 21) 2440545

Fax:(92 21) 2440549

ALI HAIDER MONEY EXCHANGE

Head Office

Address: 1,Ground Floor,Sadiq Plaza,Near Masjid-e-Shohda,The Mall lahore, punjab

Telephone:(92 42) 6278885 , (92 42) 6278847

Fax:(92 42) 6362833

Euro Rises for Fifth Day Versus Yen on German Accord

The euro strengthened for a fifth day against the yen as lawmakers in Germany, the 17-nation region’s biggest economy, reached a coalition accord on wages and spending increases without increasing taxes.

The shared currency rose versus all except one of its 16 major peers as the deal ended the longest period of coalition talks in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s time in office. The dollar climbed against the yen before U.S. data forecast to show durable-goods orders fell, while consumer sentiment was higher than initially estimated, signaling a mixed recovery that may keep the Federal Reserve from reducing stimulus. The Thai baht fell after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates.

“The euro was boosted by the news that Germany is close to reaching a coalition accord,” said Shinichiro Kadota, a foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Plc in Tokyo. “I don’t think the euro will extend gains much from here.”

The euro advanced 0.4 percent to 137.97 yen at 8:12 a.m. in London, extending its gain during the past five days to 2.6 percent. The common currency was little changed at $1.3576 after climbing to $1.3599, the strongest level since Oct. 31. The dollar rose 0.4 percent to 101.63 yen.

Merkel clinched the coalition agreement with the Social Democratic Party that calls for a national minimum wage and pledges to increase spending on pensions and infrastructure.

The accord reached shortly before 5 a.m. in Berlin today after 17 hours of negotiations sets Merkel on track for a third term leading the nation until 2017. The agreement must still be passed by the entire SPD, which plans a referendum among its roughly 470,000 members.

The baht weakened 0.2 percent to 32.145 per dollar after weakening 1.6 percent in the previous six days.

Infinity Studying Failed Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange

A private equity firm backed by the China Development Bank Corp. is studying the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange Ltd., a commodities market that suspended operations this year, for investment opportunities.

“I’m going in as a director to simply get an understanding,” said Jianrui Xiong, a Hong Kong-based venture partner at Infinity Group, which manages 10 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) in assets. “I want to understand whether this company can solve its previous issues and whether it’ll be a clean company going forward. If it is clean, then we may have some investment opportunities.”

An investment by Infinity could help revive the exchange, which surrendered its trading license in May after failing to attract enough revenue to support operations. Barry Cheung, the largest shareholder and chairman, is seeking to raise funds to repay debts and unpaid wages.

Police investigated Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange, also known as HKMEx, after the regulator said it found suspected financial irregularities. Cheung said the bourse is a victim, having been provided with financial documents it didn’t know were false.

ALI INTERNATIONAL

Head Office

Address: 7-8,1st Floor,Ruby Centre,Opp:City Post Office,Talpur Rd,Boulton Market karachi, Sindh 74000

Telephone:(92 21) 2426841 , (92 21) 2422089

Fax:(92 21) 2419583

ALLIED GROUP OF BUSINESS

Head Office

Address: Office# 105, Ist Floor, Dossul Arcade, Jinnah Avenue, Blue Area, Islamabad islamabad, punjab

Telephone: +92-51-2277283

ASMA MONEY EXCHANGER'S

Head Office

Address: Shop #2,Sadiq Plaza,69-The Mall lahore, punjab

Telephone: (92 42) 6367737 , (92 42) 6310442

Fax:(92 42) 6365804

Aylia Financial Service

Address: Office# 4, Ground Floor, City Arcade, I-8 Markaz, Islamabad islamabad, punjab

Telephone: +92-51-4862518

Bank of Punjab

Head Office

Address: Business & Finance Centre I.I.Chundrigar Rd. karachi, Sindh 74000

Telephone:+92-21-2412113 , +92-42-9200421

Branch Office

Address: Business & Finance Centre I.I.Chundrigar Rd. karachi, Sindh 74000

Telephone: +92-21-2412113, 2412114, 2412115, 2412116

PABX: +92-21-2401870, 2401871, 2401872, 2401873

UAN:+92-21-111200100

Fax: +92-21-2472991

Branch Office

Address: INTERNATIONAL DIVISION:Business & Finance Centre I.I.Chundrigar Rd. karachi, Sindh 74000

Telephone: +92-21-2415865

UAN: +92-21-111200100

PABX:+92-21-2401870, 2401871, 2401872, 2401873

Fax: +92-21-2415862

Branch Office

Address: 1st Floor, Marine Faisal Bldg. Nr. Hotel Faran. karachi, Sindh 74000

Telephone: Phone: +92-21-4545222, 4545262

PABX: +92-21-4542066, 4542077, 4542088

Fax: +92-21-4542044

Branch Office

Address: I.I.CHUNDRIGAR ROAD: Business & Finance Centre I.I.Chundrigar Rd. karachi, sindh 74000

Telephone: +92-21-2415861

UAN+92-21-111200100

PABX+92-21-2401870, 2401871, 2401872, 2401873

Fax: +92-21-2415863

Branch Office

Address: MALIR HALT BRANCH: Shmasi Cooperative Housing Society, Malir Halt. karachi, sindh 74000

Telephone: +92-21-9248940, +92-21-9248942

Fax: +92-21-9248941

Regional Office

Address: REGIONAL OFFICE:Business & Finance Centre I.I.Chundrigar Rd. karachi, Sindh 74000

Telephone: +92-21-2415864, 2472945

UAN: +92-21-111200100

PABX: +92-21-2401870, 2401871, 2401872, 2401873

Fax: +92-21-2415862

Thailand Unexpectedly Cuts Rate as Protests Crimp Outlook

Thailand unexpectedly cut its key interest rate for a second time this year, as escalating anti-government protests threaten investor confidence and local demand, hurting the nation’s growth outlook. The baht fell.

The Bank of Thailand cut its one-day bond repurchase rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25 percent, with monetary policy committee members voting six-to-one in favor of the decision, it said in Bangkok today. All 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted the rate would be held.

Thai protesters this week besieged government ministries and urged civil servants to join a push to oust Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, an escalation of rallies that began a month ago against an amnesty for most political offenses stretching back to the 2006 coup that ousted her brother Thaksin. The economy expanded a less-than-estimated 1.3 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months.

“The central bank seems to be concerned about growth and the sluggish exports, and on top of that, there’s the political concern,” said Kozo Hasegawa, a Bangkok-based foreign-exchange trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “Should the protests prolong and impact government spending, tourism and the economy further, they could consider another cut.”

The baht reversed earlier gains to slip 0.2 percent to 32.16 against the dollar as of 3:25 p.m. local time, the weakest level since Sept. 11. The SET Index of shares extended gains, climbing 0.6 percent.

Higher Risks

Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, who oversaw a deadly crackdown on Thaksin supporters when he was deputy premier in 2010, has called for a nationwide program of civil disobedience to bring down the administration of Yingluck, whose Pheu Thai party won a parliamentary majority in elections in 2011. A confidence vote is scheduled for tomorrow.

The Thai central bank today cut its 2013 growth forecast to about 3 percent from 3.7 percent earlier, and its 2014 estimate to about 4 percent from 4.8 percent. “There are higher downside risks to growth stemming from delays in government investment and fragile private confidence, which could be compounded by the ongoing political situation,” Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan said at a briefing today. “Given the benign inflation outlook and moderating household credit growth, there is room for monetary policy to mitigate downside risks to the economy.”

Yingluck’s administration has tried to speed up budget disbursement and boost local demand as plans to spend 2 trillion baht ($62 billion) on infrastructure and 350 billion baht on water management projects have stalled. Consumer confidence in October fell to the lowest since March 2012, while exports slipped for a second straight month, data earlier today showed.

The state forecasting agency this month cut its full-year expansion estimate to 3 percent from a range of 3.8 percent to 4.3 percent, and said it expected no export growth this year.

“Political instability has retarded progress on infrastructure development and thereby constrained Thailand’s growth,” Fitch Ratings said in a statement earlier today. “Moreover, political noise could increase investor skittishness as the U.S. Fed’s tapering of quantitative easing draws closer.”

CFD Trading: Trading with the 4, 9 and 18 Period Simple Moving Average

The simple moving average is described in the post CFD Trading: The Simple Moving Average.

In this post is described how to trade with the 4, 9 and 18 period simple moving average and how to read the signals they provide.

The 4, 9 and 18 Period Simple Moving Average

The 4, 9 and 18 period moving average is a common used.

When the 4 and 9 period moving average crosses each other is the first signal given that a change is in the price development is started. The change is confirmed when the 4 and 9 moving average is above the 18 period moving average.

An example

In the image is the AUDUSD price chart; in the chart are the 3 simple moving averages; the 4 period is the blue line; the 9 period is the lime line and the 18 period is the red line.  

The example illustrates how the price line starts to change from and up going development to and down going development as the three simple moving averages is crossing each other as described in the beginning of this post.  

The same price line is in the image below illustrated with price bars.

WTI Oil Drops for a Fourth Day as U.S. Crude Inventories Advance

West Texas Intermediate fell for a fourth day after industry data showed crude stockpiles rose for a ninth week in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer.

Futures slid as much as 0.3 percent in New York. Crude inventories increased by 6.92 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday. An Energy Information Administration report today is projected to show supplies climbed by 750,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep its production quota unchanged at a meeting next week in Vienna, a separate survey shows.

“The key for the market will be those numbers” from the EIA, said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney who predicts OPEC will keep its output target unchanged at the Dec. 4 gathering. “New supply in the U.S. is causing a build-up of inventories.”

WTI for January delivery dropped as much as 32 cents to $93.36 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $93.39 at 3:45 p.m. Singapore time. The contract lost 0.4 percent to $93.68 yesterday. The volume of all futures traded was more than double the 100-day average.

Brent for January settlement gained 2 cents to $110.90 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $17.51 to WTI. The spread was $17.20 yesterday, the widest in more than eight months based on closing prices.

EUR/USD capped by 1.3590

The shared currency is inching higher on Thursday, with the EUR/USD advancing through 1.3580 after testing lows near 1.3560 overnight.

EUR/USD focus on German, EMU data

Despite the holiday in the US and the absence of a docket, the releases in the euro area should be relevant enough to keep investors entertained during most part of the session. The final revision of Spanish GDP figures is expected to show a 0.1% expansion inter-quarter of the Mediterranean economy, finally leaving the recession territory. German employment figures are due next, with consensus expecting the jobless rate to stay put at 6.9% during November. EMU’s gauges of Economic/Consumer/Business Confidence will follow, with prior surveys pointing to mixed results. So, with the pair well supported around 1.3560 and mixed results on the cards and having tested 1.3600 yesterday, decent readings today would be supportive of the prevailing bid tone around the EUR, allowing another test of the 1.3600 handle.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is up 0.03% at 1.3578 with the next resistance at 1.3613 (high Nov.27) followed by 1.3628 (61.8% of 1.3822-1.3295) and finally 1.3696 (low Oct.30). On the downside, a dip beyond 1.3558 (low Nov.27) would target 1.3515 (low Nov.26) en route to 1.3504 (MA21d).

GDP rises 1.9% in Q3

On an annuual basis Swiss GDP increased 1.9% in Q3, following a 2.5% rise registered the previous quarter, according to data released today the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO. This result higher than market consensus of +1.7%.

Quarter-over-quarter GDP rose 0.5% in Q3, following +0.5% in Q2 and slightly above expectations of 0.4% growth.

Brazil Extending World’s Biggest Rate Rise to Regain Credibility

Brazil’s central bank probably will raise the benchmark interest rate for a sixth straight meeting in an effort to convince investors that policy makers are serious about slowing inflation back to its target.

Policy makers led by central bank President Alexandre Tombini will lift the Selic rate to 10 percent from 9.50 percent today, according to 50 of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Two analysts expect a 0.25 percentage-point boost. The bank is scheduled to announce its decision after 6:00 p.m. local time.

Before embarking on the world’s biggest interest rate increase this year, policy makers slashed borrowing costs to a record even as consumer price increases exceeded the 4.5 percent goal. The past decisions coupled with higher public spending led investors to speculate the government had abandoned its inflation target, hurting the central bank’s credibility, former bank President Carlos Langoni said. Now, the effort to tame above-target inflation is also being undercut by a weaker currency and a widening budget gap. “The central bank is trying to make up for past mistakes,” Langoni, who is head of the World Economic Center at Fundacao Getulio Vargas, said in an interview at his office in Rio de Janeiro. “Since they lost credibility, they probably have to overshoot the interest rate.”

Analysts forecast Tombini will fail to meet his pledge to slow inflation in 2014 from 2013 as the biggest decline amid major currencies in the past six months reignites price increases. They predict inflation will accelerate to 5.92 percent in 2014 from 5.82 percent this year, according to a central bank survey published Nov. 25.

Import Price Index drops 0.7% in October

The German Import Price Index fell 0.7% in October, after remaining unchanged the previous month, Deutsche Bundesbank revealed on Thursday. Analysts expected less decrease of 0.5%.

Year-over-year the Import Price Index declined 3%, down from the 2.8% fall and below expectations of -2.8%.

AUD/USD spikes to 0.9140

The Aussie dollar found decent support in the area of 0.9090 on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD now attempting a return to the positive ground around 0.9140.

AUD/USD all eyes on tomorrow’s Capex

The most relevant event for the AUD this week will be the Private Capital Expenditure for the third quarter, although consensus amongst traders would point to a soft reading, adding to the selling pressure. Today’s Construction Work Done in Australia expanded 2.7% in Q3, largely surpassing the median at 0.5% and the previous quarter 0.1% gain. According to Greg Gibbs, “The Trading performance of the AUD in recent sessions has been poor reflecting the increasing uncertainty in China and the rhetoric by the RBA focussing on the expected decline in resources investment over the coming several years and desire for a weaker AUD to support investment growth in the non-resources sector”.

AUD/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is down 0.05% at 0.9125 with the immediate support at 0.9090 (lower channel support) ahead of 0.9088 (low Nov.26) and then 0.9038 (low Sep.4). On the flip side, a break above 0.9204 (high Nov.26) would expose 0.9249 (high Nov.22) and finally 0.9355 (high Nov.21).

Dollar off highs vs Yen

The dollar pulled back from six-month highs against the yen on Tuesday, and the euro remained higher against the dollar, shrugging off dovish comments by a senior European Central Bank official.

During European morning trade, USD/JPY slid 0.29% to 101.37, after rising as high as 101.91 on Monday, the highest since late May.

The yen found support after Tuesday’s minutes of the Bank of Japan’s October meeting showed some policymakers see a greater downside risk to the economy.

The BoJ noted that the economy is following the path to the bank’s 2% inflation target at a moderate pace. The members also said that there remains a high degree of uncertainty over the medium to long term inflation outlook.

Elsewhere, EUR/USD was up 0.29% to 1.3555 from 1.3515 on Monday. The euro shrugged off remarks by ECB board member Benoit Coeure, who said that negative deposit rates are still a possibility.

The pound was also higher against the dollar, with GBP/USD rising 0.21% to 1.6188 ahead of testimony by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on the bank’s inflation report before the U.K. Treasury select committee.

The dollar was down against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF losing 0.40% to trade at 0.9080.

The greenback was little changed against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, with AUD/USD slipping 0.09% to 0.9152, NZD/USD edging up 0.07% to 0.8212 and USD/CAD inching up 0.09% to 1.0551.

Australia’s dollar remained supported after Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said Tuesday that intervention to weaken the currency is an option, but added that the threshold for intervention is high.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.28% to 80.73.

Yen strengthens after BoJ minutes

The yen strengthened in Asian trade Tuesday despite three of the nine Bank of Japan board members seeing a greater downside risk to the economy than the majority view of balanced risk, according to the minutes of the Oct. 31 policy meeting released earlier in the day.

USD/JPY traded at 101.49, down 0.19%, in a range of 101.34 - 101.73 after the minutes.

Bank of Japan board member Takehiro Sato said downside risks to weaker prices is somewhat higher than the upside, while colleague Takahide Kiuchi repeated his call for greater price target flexibly. Sayuri Shirai said attention needs to be paid to downside risks to economic activity and prices.

The Bank of Japan is aiming for sustained annual inflation at 2% by 2015 through an aggressive easing policy that is supposed to work in combination with government economic reforms.

At the meeting, the Bank of Japan board, by a unanimous vote, kept the bank's policy target unchanged as expected.

AUD/USD traded at 0.9191, up 0.32%, shrugging off remarks by Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Philip Lowe that the currency should weaken over time.

The Australian dollar could fall further in the period ahead as investments in Australia decline, but as the terms of trade is expected to remain high the exchange rate will be high on a historical basis, Lowe said in remarks at a question and answer session following a speech.

Iran's decision to rein in its nuclear ambitions enticed investors out of safe-haven yen and other positions on Monday and sparked demand for the dollar, which tends to edge lower when U.S.-Iranian tensions flare up.

Weekend talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran ended in agreement that halted advancements in Iran's nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions against Tehran.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iran will stop enriching uranium beyond 5%, and neutralize its stockpile of uranium enriched beyond that point.

Tehran will also grant more access to its facilities to nuclear inspectors in exchange for no new sanctions for six months.

Iran will also receive sanctions relief worth approximately USD7 billion in trade on oil, auto and airplane parts, gold and precious metals for six months.

Trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market in the past two years.

World powers have accused Iran of using its nuclear program to secretly develop nuclear weapons, an assertion the country has consistently denied.

The news offset otherwise bearish data for the dollar in the U.S. housing sector that revealed pending home sales fell unexpectedly in October.

In a report, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in October, disappointing market expectations for a 1.3% gain.

Year-on-year, pending home sales fell at annualized rate of 2.2% last month, outpacing expectations for a 1% decline after rising 2% in September.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.85, down 0.13%.

On Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity as well as a report on housing starts. The nation is also to release private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation.

AUD/USD edges higher but gains seen limited

The Australian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, but gains were seen to remain limited as expectations for the Federal Reserve to soon begin tapering its stimulus program continued to support the greenback.

AUD/USD hit 0.9203 during late Asian trade, the pair's highest since November 22; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9187, rising 0.28%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.9120, Monday's low and a one-and-a-half month low and resistance at 0.9250, the high of November 22.

Investors consolidated their positions following sharp gains in the past several days, but the greenback remained supported after last week’s minutes of the Fed’s October meeting said the bank could start tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.

The Aussie was fractionally higher against the euro with EUR/AUD easing 0.09%, to hit 1.4742.

Later in the day, the U.S. was to produce data on building permits, as well as private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation.

AUD/USD capped by 0.9200

The selling bias seems to have abandoned the Aussie dollar on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD extending the recovery although the area around 0.9200 remains yet elusive.

AUD/USD bolstered by RBA

The pair found the much-needed oxygen in the speech by RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe last night, where he removed some pressure from the recent comments regarding the likeliness of an intervention in order to keep the AUD weak. Annette Beacher, Strategist at TD Securities, commented, “RBA Deputy Governor Lowe’s speech in Sydney on productivity, drivers and trends covered familiar ground, focusing on the need to lift productivity growth as Australia adjusts to a decline in terms of trade in future. Price action kicked in during the Q&A when he said that the ‘threshold for intervention is fairly high’ although he did not rule it in or out”. The next big event in Australia will be the Private Capital Expenditure during Q3, on Thursday.

AUD/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is up 0.32% at 0.9192 and a surpass of 0.9249 (high Nov.22) would aim for 0.9300 (psychological level) and then 0.9335 (high Nov.21). On the flip side, the initial support aligns at 0.9120 (low Nov.25) followed by 0.9115 (lower channel support) and finally 0.9038 (low Sep.4).

Gold Rallies From Four Month Low as Weaker Prices Boost Demand

Gold rebounded from a four-month low to the highest level in almost a week as the dollar weakened and lower prices spurred demand in China, the second-largest consumer, countering outflows from exchange-traded products.

Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.6 percent to $1,258.30 an ounce, the highest level since Nov. 20, before trading at $1,252.64 by 12:26 p.m. in Singapore. Prices touched $1,225.55 yesterday, the lowest since July 8, as an accord between Iran and world powers damped demand for haven assets.

Volumes for cash gold of 99.99 percent purity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose to 15,077 kilograms yesterday, the most since Nov. 13. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETP backed by bullion, shrank to 848.91 metric tons yesterday, the least since January 2009, contracting for a sixth day in the longest slump since August. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, fell 0.1 percent to 1,020.06.

“The slight pullback in the dollar may be helping gold but that said, the issue of U.S. monetary policy continues to weigh on the market,” said Mark To, head of research at Wing Fung Financial Group, a Hong Kong-based trader and refiner. “Gold may be oversold and have a technical bounce in the near-term.”

Prices that last week capped the worst weekly performance in two months pushed gold’s 14-day relative-strength index to 30 for a fourth day yesterday, a level that suggests to some analysts who study technical charts that bullion may rebound.

Fed Stimulus

Gold tumbled 25 percent this year, entering a bear market in April. Investors sold metal from ETPs at a record pace as inflation failed to accelerate and on expectations the Federal Reserve will begin scaling back its $85 billion-a-month of asset purchases that helped bullion cap a 12-year bull run in 2012.

Gold for February delivery on the Comex in New York gained as much as 1.3 percent to $1,258.20 an ounce, before trading at $1,252.30, in volume that was 10 percent above the average for the past 100 days at this time.

Spot silver fell as much as 0.6 percent to $20.1186 an ounce after a 1.9 percent advance yesterday, the most in a month. Prices touched $19.5955 yesterday, the lowest since Aug. 8. Metal in ETPs dropped to 19,794.6 tons yesterday, the least since Aug. 13, according to data tracked by Bloomberg, and has declined 1.6 percent from a record in October.

Platinum traded at $1,387.60 an ounce from $1,385.75 yesterday, when prices dropped to a six-week low of $1,374.40. Palladium gained 0.3 percent to $723.25 an ounce, advancing for a fourth day.