Goldman to BofA Pitch Venezuela Deals to Drum Up Dollars

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) are among Wall Street firms that offered deals to help Venezuela obtain U.S. dollars amid a plunge in the nation’s foreign reserves.

A swap proposed by Goldman Sachs would provide $1.68 billion in cash and be backed by $1.85 billion of the central bank’s gold, documents obtained by Bloomberg News show. Bank of America said it could be an intermediary for $3 billion in payments to firms seeking U.S. dollars, documents show. Neither deal has been completed, a government official with direct knowledge of the matter said, requesting anonymity because the talks are private.

Dollars are becoming scarce in Venezuela, limiting the supply of products from medicine to toilet paper in a nation that imports about three-quarters of goods it consumes. Foreign reserves dropped 28 percent this year, touching a nine-year low of $20.7 billion this month, largely because 70 percent of the assets are in gold. The metal plunged 26 percent in the period.

“The fact you have dollar shortages is symptomatic of an economy that’s completely broken down,” Robert Abad, who helps oversee $53 billion in emerging-market debt at Western Asset Management Co., said yesterday in a telephone interview from Pasadena, California.

“This is something that’s just incredibly unnecessary, very unfortunate, and the victim of all of this is the real economy, real people.”

Dollar Gains to 6-Month High on December Taper Bet

The dollar rose to a six-month high against the yen as an unexpected drop in U.S. jobless claims and a rise in leading economic indicators added to speculation the Federal Reserve may start reducing stimulus next month.

The euro strengthened to a four-year high against the yen as German lawmakers reached a coalition accord on wages and spending increases without raising taxes, spurring demand for the region’s assets. The Thai baht fell after the central bank cut interest rates,

while the Canadian dollar dropped as crude oil slipped for a fourth day. “The dollar is benefiting from a very small risk of taper in December,” Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in Washington at the currency brokerage Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., said in a phone interview. “I’m still a little skeptical about December tapering. Granted the FOMC meeting minutes was a bit more hawkish than expected, but if you just focus on what Bernanke and Yellen said, the most likely scenario is taper in the first quarter.”

The dollar gained 0.9 percent to 102.16 yen at 5 p.m. in New York and touched 102.19, the strongest level since May 29. It slipped 0.1 percent to $1.3579 against the common currency, having dropped as much as 0.3 percent earlier. The euro advanced 0.9 percent to 138.73 yen after touching 138.79, the highest since June 2009.

The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, rose 0.3 percent to 1,021.55.

Swiss Economy Grows More Than Forecast on Better Exports

Switzerland’s economy expanded more than economists expected in the third quarter, with exports helping it perform better than neighboring Germany.

Swiss gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent in the three months through September from the second quarter, when it expanded by the same amount, the Secretariat for Economic Affairs in Bern said in a statement today. That beats the 0.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 19 economists.

The Swiss National Bank (SNBN) set a cap on the franc of 1.20 per in September 2011, citing the risk of deflation and a recession. Since then, the Swiss economy has seen a single quarter of contraction, while the debt-plagued euro area only emerged from an 18-month slump in the middle of this year.

If the SNB were to tighten monetary policy reflecting better growth, “it would have immediate negative domestic effects,” said Christian Lips, an economist at NordLB in Hanover. “Looking forward, neither the cap nor the rates can be changed before year-end 2014,” given weak growth in the neighboring euro area, Switzerland’s top trading partner, he said.

The franc, which has slipped two percent against the euro since the start of the year as the bloc’s debt crisis has waned, was trading unchanged at 1.2324 per euro at 8:43 a.m. in Zurich, off an intra-day high of 1.2321.

Canada Dollar Falls to Weakest Since July as Crude Oil Declines

The Canadian Dollar touched the weakest level against its U.S. counterpart since July as the price of crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, declined for a fourth day.

The currency weakened as futures of crude oil fell 1.4 percent to $92.39 per barrel in New York. So-called commodity currencies, which include Canada’s and the Australian and New Zealand dollars also declined. Yields on Treasury (USGG10YR) 10-year notes have increased to 19 basis points more than Canadian debt, from negative nine basis points in January, amid speculation that U.S. policy makers will reduce monetary stimulus earlier than Canadian officials.

The market thinks “the Bank of Canada will lag the Fed in taking away the easier policy,” Ken Dickson, an Edinburgh-based director for foreign exchange at Standard Life

Investments Ltd., which oversees about $291 billion, said in a phone interview. “On that relative basis, we think that will favor the dollar against the Canadian dollar through 2014.”

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell 0.5 percent to C$1.0595 per U.S. dollar at 5:00 p.m. in Toronto, after reaching C$1.0603. One loonie buys 94.38 U.S. cents.

Bond Trade

The nation’s benchmark 10-year government bonds fell, pushing yields up three basis points to 2.55 percent. The price of the 1.5 percent securities maturing in June 2023 declined 20 cents to C$91.23.

BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest asset manager, is recommending Canadian investors bet on a widening gap between short- and long-term debt in anticipation of less U.S. monetary stimulus next year.

Canadian debt maturing in one to three years returned 0.9 percent since May through Nov. 25, compared with losses of 5 percent for bonds with maturities of 10 to 15 years, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show.

Investors should bet against the Canadian currency versus the U.S. dollar, in what Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts in a client note called their third top-trade recommendation for 2014.

The Canadian dollar has lost 3.3 percent this year against nine developed-market peers tracked by the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Index. The U.S. dollar is up 4 percent, while the Australian currency fell 11 percent.

“We’ve seen steady interbank buying of dollar-Canada since today’s open and that appears to be what has pushed us up here,” said George Davis, chief technical analyst for fixed-income and currency strategy in Toronto at Royal Bank of Canada. “Oil also under pressure, which is not helping.”

Dollar Reaches Six-Month High as Improving Economy Boosts Allure

The dollar touched a six-month high against the yen after signs of improvement in the world’s largest economy boosted the allure of U.S. assets.

The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index was near a two-week high before data next week forecast to show U.S. manufacturing expanded for a sixth month. The euro retreated from a four-year high against the yen as technical indicators signaled its recent gains were excessive. The Australian dollar rallied from a two-month low after business investment unexpectedly grew.

“A string of reasonably positive data in the U.S. is probably going to help the dollar via higher treasury yields,” said Michael Turner, a debt and currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney. Yields on Japanese government bonds “have been falling fairly consistently for the past four or five months and that’s kept the yen fairly weak.”

The dollar was little changed at 102.13 yen as of 6:42 a.m. in London from yesterday, after touching 102.28, the strongest level since May 29. It traded at $1.3583 against the euro from $1.3579. The shared currency was unchanged at 138.73 yen after touching 138.84, the highest since June 2009.

The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major peers, declined 0.1 percent to 1,020.55. It rose 0.3 percent to 1,021.55 yesterday, the highest close since Nov. 12.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield gained three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.74 percent yesterday. U.S. markets are closed for Thanksgiving holiday. Similar-dated Japanese government bonds yielded 0.60 percent today.

EUR/USD to remain neutral

Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank is expecting EUR/USD to remain neutral to supported.

Key Quotes

“Despite the updraft from the GBP, dovish ECB rhetoric may also continue to place a damper on excessive upside against the USD. “

“Look for initial support on dips around the 55-day MA (1.3548) while key resistance is expected on approach of 1.3600 ahead of the EZ inflation number tomorrow. “

Euro Rises for Fifth Day Versus Yen on German Accord

The euro strengthened for a fifth day against the yen as lawmakers in Germany, the 17-nation region’s biggest economy, reached a coalition accord on wages and spending increases without increasing taxes.

The shared currency rose versus all except one of its 16 major peers as the deal ended the longest period of coalition talks in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s time in office. The dollar climbed against the yen before U.S. data forecast to show durable-goods orders fell, while consumer sentiment was higher than initially estimated, signaling a mixed recovery that may keep the Federal Reserve from reducing stimulus. The Thai baht fell after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates.

“The euro was boosted by the news that Germany is close to reaching a coalition accord,” said Shinichiro Kadota, a foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Plc in Tokyo. “I don’t think the euro will extend gains much from here.”

The euro advanced 0.4 percent to 137.97 yen at 8:12 a.m. in London, extending its gain during the past five days to 2.6 percent. The common currency was little changed at $1.3576 after climbing to $1.3599, the strongest level since Oct. 31. The dollar rose 0.4 percent to 101.63 yen.

Merkel clinched the coalition agreement with the Social Democratic Party that calls for a national minimum wage and pledges to increase spending on pensions and infrastructure.

The accord reached shortly before 5 a.m. in Berlin today after 17 hours of negotiations sets Merkel on track for a third term leading the nation until 2017. The agreement must still be passed by the entire SPD, which plans a referendum among its roughly 470,000 members.

The baht weakened 0.2 percent to 32.145 per dollar after weakening 1.6 percent in the previous six days.

WTI Oil Drops for a Fourth Day as U.S. Crude Inventories Advance

West Texas Intermediate fell for a fourth day after industry data showed crude stockpiles rose for a ninth week in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer.

Futures slid as much as 0.3 percent in New York. Crude inventories increased by 6.92 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday. An Energy Information Administration report today is projected to show supplies climbed by 750,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep its production quota unchanged at a meeting next week in Vienna, a separate survey shows.

“The key for the market will be those numbers” from the EIA, said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney who predicts OPEC will keep its output target unchanged at the Dec. 4 gathering. “New supply in the U.S. is causing a build-up of inventories.”

WTI for January delivery dropped as much as 32 cents to $93.36 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $93.39 at 3:45 p.m. Singapore time. The contract lost 0.4 percent to $93.68 yesterday. The volume of all futures traded was more than double the 100-day average.

Brent for January settlement gained 2 cents to $110.90 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $17.51 to WTI. The spread was $17.20 yesterday, the widest in more than eight months based on closing prices.

EUR/USD capped by 1.3590

The shared currency is inching higher on Thursday, with the EUR/USD advancing through 1.3580 after testing lows near 1.3560 overnight.

EUR/USD focus on German, EMU data

Despite the holiday in the US and the absence of a docket, the releases in the euro area should be relevant enough to keep investors entertained during most part of the session. The final revision of Spanish GDP figures is expected to show a 0.1% expansion inter-quarter of the Mediterranean economy, finally leaving the recession territory. German employment figures are due next, with consensus expecting the jobless rate to stay put at 6.9% during November. EMU’s gauges of Economic/Consumer/Business Confidence will follow, with prior surveys pointing to mixed results. So, with the pair well supported around 1.3560 and mixed results on the cards and having tested 1.3600 yesterday, decent readings today would be supportive of the prevailing bid tone around the EUR, allowing another test of the 1.3600 handle.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is up 0.03% at 1.3578 with the next resistance at 1.3613 (high Nov.27) followed by 1.3628 (61.8% of 1.3822-1.3295) and finally 1.3696 (low Oct.30). On the downside, a dip beyond 1.3558 (low Nov.27) would target 1.3515 (low Nov.26) en route to 1.3504 (MA21d).

Import Price Index drops 0.7% in October

The German Import Price Index fell 0.7% in October, after remaining unchanged the previous month, Deutsche Bundesbank revealed on Thursday. Analysts expected less decrease of 0.5%.

Year-over-year the Import Price Index declined 3%, down from the 2.8% fall and below expectations of -2.8%.

AUD/USD spikes to 0.9140

The Aussie dollar found decent support in the area of 0.9090 on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD now attempting a return to the positive ground around 0.9140.

AUD/USD all eyes on tomorrow’s Capex

The most relevant event for the AUD this week will be the Private Capital Expenditure for the third quarter, although consensus amongst traders would point to a soft reading, adding to the selling pressure. Today’s Construction Work Done in Australia expanded 2.7% in Q3, largely surpassing the median at 0.5% and the previous quarter 0.1% gain. According to Greg Gibbs, “The Trading performance of the AUD in recent sessions has been poor reflecting the increasing uncertainty in China and the rhetoric by the RBA focussing on the expected decline in resources investment over the coming several years and desire for a weaker AUD to support investment growth in the non-resources sector”.

AUD/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is down 0.05% at 0.9125 with the immediate support at 0.9090 (lower channel support) ahead of 0.9088 (low Nov.26) and then 0.9038 (low Sep.4). On the flip side, a break above 0.9204 (high Nov.26) would expose 0.9249 (high Nov.22) and finally 0.9355 (high Nov.21).

Dollar off highs vs Yen

The dollar pulled back from six-month highs against the yen on Tuesday, and the euro remained higher against the dollar, shrugging off dovish comments by a senior European Central Bank official.

During European morning trade, USD/JPY slid 0.29% to 101.37, after rising as high as 101.91 on Monday, the highest since late May.

The yen found support after Tuesday’s minutes of the Bank of Japan’s October meeting showed some policymakers see a greater downside risk to the economy.

The BoJ noted that the economy is following the path to the bank’s 2% inflation target at a moderate pace. The members also said that there remains a high degree of uncertainty over the medium to long term inflation outlook.

Elsewhere, EUR/USD was up 0.29% to 1.3555 from 1.3515 on Monday. The euro shrugged off remarks by ECB board member Benoit Coeure, who said that negative deposit rates are still a possibility.

The pound was also higher against the dollar, with GBP/USD rising 0.21% to 1.6188 ahead of testimony by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on the bank’s inflation report before the U.K. Treasury select committee.

The dollar was down against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF losing 0.40% to trade at 0.9080.

The greenback was little changed against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, with AUD/USD slipping 0.09% to 0.9152, NZD/USD edging up 0.07% to 0.8212 and USD/CAD inching up 0.09% to 1.0551.

Australia’s dollar remained supported after Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said Tuesday that intervention to weaken the currency is an option, but added that the threshold for intervention is high.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.28% to 80.73.

Yen strengthens after BoJ minutes

The yen strengthened in Asian trade Tuesday despite three of the nine Bank of Japan board members seeing a greater downside risk to the economy than the majority view of balanced risk, according to the minutes of the Oct. 31 policy meeting released earlier in the day.

USD/JPY traded at 101.49, down 0.19%, in a range of 101.34 - 101.73 after the minutes.

Bank of Japan board member Takehiro Sato said downside risks to weaker prices is somewhat higher than the upside, while colleague Takahide Kiuchi repeated his call for greater price target flexibly. Sayuri Shirai said attention needs to be paid to downside risks to economic activity and prices.

The Bank of Japan is aiming for sustained annual inflation at 2% by 2015 through an aggressive easing policy that is supposed to work in combination with government economic reforms.

At the meeting, the Bank of Japan board, by a unanimous vote, kept the bank's policy target unchanged as expected.

AUD/USD traded at 0.9191, up 0.32%, shrugging off remarks by Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Philip Lowe that the currency should weaken over time.

The Australian dollar could fall further in the period ahead as investments in Australia decline, but as the terms of trade is expected to remain high the exchange rate will be high on a historical basis, Lowe said in remarks at a question and answer session following a speech.

Iran's decision to rein in its nuclear ambitions enticed investors out of safe-haven yen and other positions on Monday and sparked demand for the dollar, which tends to edge lower when U.S.-Iranian tensions flare up.

Weekend talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran ended in agreement that halted advancements in Iran's nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions against Tehran.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iran will stop enriching uranium beyond 5%, and neutralize its stockpile of uranium enriched beyond that point.

Tehran will also grant more access to its facilities to nuclear inspectors in exchange for no new sanctions for six months.

Iran will also receive sanctions relief worth approximately USD7 billion in trade on oil, auto and airplane parts, gold and precious metals for six months.

Trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market in the past two years.

World powers have accused Iran of using its nuclear program to secretly develop nuclear weapons, an assertion the country has consistently denied.

The news offset otherwise bearish data for the dollar in the U.S. housing sector that revealed pending home sales fell unexpectedly in October.

In a report, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in October, disappointing market expectations for a 1.3% gain.

Year-on-year, pending home sales fell at annualized rate of 2.2% last month, outpacing expectations for a 1% decline after rising 2% in September.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.85, down 0.13%.

On Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity as well as a report on housing starts. The nation is also to release private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation.

AUD/USD edges higher but gains seen limited

The Australian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, but gains were seen to remain limited as expectations for the Federal Reserve to soon begin tapering its stimulus program continued to support the greenback.

AUD/USD hit 0.9203 during late Asian trade, the pair's highest since November 22; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9187, rising 0.28%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.9120, Monday's low and a one-and-a-half month low and resistance at 0.9250, the high of November 22.

Investors consolidated their positions following sharp gains in the past several days, but the greenback remained supported after last week’s minutes of the Fed’s October meeting said the bank could start tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.

The Aussie was fractionally higher against the euro with EUR/AUD easing 0.09%, to hit 1.4742.

Later in the day, the U.S. was to produce data on building permits, as well as private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation.

AUD/USD capped by 0.9200

The selling bias seems to have abandoned the Aussie dollar on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD extending the recovery although the area around 0.9200 remains yet elusive.

AUD/USD bolstered by RBA

The pair found the much-needed oxygen in the speech by RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe last night, where he removed some pressure from the recent comments regarding the likeliness of an intervention in order to keep the AUD weak. Annette Beacher, Strategist at TD Securities, commented, “RBA Deputy Governor Lowe’s speech in Sydney on productivity, drivers and trends covered familiar ground, focusing on the need to lift productivity growth as Australia adjusts to a decline in terms of trade in future. Price action kicked in during the Q&A when he said that the ‘threshold for intervention is fairly high’ although he did not rule it in or out”. The next big event in Australia will be the Private Capital Expenditure during Q3, on Thursday.

AUD/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is up 0.32% at 0.9192 and a surpass of 0.9249 (high Nov.22) would aim for 0.9300 (psychological level) and then 0.9335 (high Nov.21). On the flip side, the initial support aligns at 0.9120 (low Nov.25) followed by 0.9115 (lower channel support) and finally 0.9038 (low Sep.4).

Gold Rallies From Four Month Low as Weaker Prices Boost Demand

Gold rebounded from a four-month low to the highest level in almost a week as the dollar weakened and lower prices spurred demand in China, the second-largest consumer, countering outflows from exchange-traded products.

Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.6 percent to $1,258.30 an ounce, the highest level since Nov. 20, before trading at $1,252.64 by 12:26 p.m. in Singapore. Prices touched $1,225.55 yesterday, the lowest since July 8, as an accord between Iran and world powers damped demand for haven assets.

Volumes for cash gold of 99.99 percent purity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose to 15,077 kilograms yesterday, the most since Nov. 13. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETP backed by bullion, shrank to 848.91 metric tons yesterday, the least since January 2009, contracting for a sixth day in the longest slump since August. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, fell 0.1 percent to 1,020.06.

“The slight pullback in the dollar may be helping gold but that said, the issue of U.S. monetary policy continues to weigh on the market,” said Mark To, head of research at Wing Fung Financial Group, a Hong Kong-based trader and refiner. “Gold may be oversold and have a technical bounce in the near-term.”

Prices that last week capped the worst weekly performance in two months pushed gold’s 14-day relative-strength index to 30 for a fourth day yesterday, a level that suggests to some analysts who study technical charts that bullion may rebound.

Fed Stimulus

Gold tumbled 25 percent this year, entering a bear market in April. Investors sold metal from ETPs at a record pace as inflation failed to accelerate and on expectations the Federal Reserve will begin scaling back its $85 billion-a-month of asset purchases that helped bullion cap a 12-year bull run in 2012.

Gold for February delivery on the Comex in New York gained as much as 1.3 percent to $1,258.20 an ounce, before trading at $1,252.30, in volume that was 10 percent above the average for the past 100 days at this time.

Spot silver fell as much as 0.6 percent to $20.1186 an ounce after a 1.9 percent advance yesterday, the most in a month. Prices touched $19.5955 yesterday, the lowest since Aug. 8. Metal in ETPs dropped to 19,794.6 tons yesterday, the least since Aug. 13, according to data tracked by Bloomberg, and has declined 1.6 percent from a record in October.

Platinum traded at $1,387.60 an ounce from $1,385.75 yesterday, when prices dropped to a six-week low of $1,374.40. Palladium gained 0.3 percent to $723.25 an ounce, advancing for a fourth day.

Dollar eases back from recent highs against yen

The dollar eased back from recent highs against the yen on Tuesday, as investors consolidated their positions following sharp gains in the past several days.

USD/JPY was down 0.22% to 101.46 after rising to highs of 101.91 on Monday, the highest level since late May.

The pair was likely to find support at 100.94, Friday’s low and near-term resistance at 101.91.

The yen found support after the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s October meeting showed some policymakers see a greater downside risk to the economy.

The board noted that the economy is following the path to the bank’s 2% inflation target at a moderate pace. The members also said that there remains a high degree of uncertainty over the medium to long term inflation outlook.

The dollar continued to remain supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will start rolling back stimulus at one of its next few meetings.

The euro was almost unchanged against the yen, with EUR/JPY dipping 0.02% to 137.39, holding below the four-year high of 137.97 struck on Monday.

Elsewhere, the euro pushed higher against the dollar, with EUR/USD rising 0.19% to 1.3542 from 1.3515 on Monday.

USD/JPY ranges into European session

USD/JPY has ranged overnight and into the European session, posting a high at 101.74 and a low at 101.33 and presently trading at 101.45, down -0.01% on the days trading.

Yen on defensive overnight

Overnight Japanese Economy Minister Aso spoke to the media and claimed that market principles were reflected in the weak yen under Abenomics, and that momentum is rising to reach a year end conclusion too TPP talks. Further, the government announced that it would end four decades of rice price support for farmers. Elsewhere the latest BoJ minutes were released showing that board members agreed that the 2% inflation target would be reached by the latter half of the production period, but also seeing downside risks to the economy too. They added their belief that higher corporate earnings would feed through to higher salaries for workers, supporting consumption ahead.

What are today’s key USD/JPY levels?

Today’s central pivot point is at 101.5145 with support for the pair below at 101.0990 (S1), 100.7195 (S2) and 100.3040 (S3), and resistances above at 101.8940 (R1), 102.3095 (R2) and 102.6890 (R3). Special attention should be paid to the price range 101.46-101.80 where several technical levels are confluent today.

GBP/USD inching higher

The bullish momentum in the sterling is now gathering steam, lifting the GBP/USD to the vicinity of 1.6200 the figure on Tuesday.

GBP/USD attention on the Inflation Report Hearings

The risk appetite is reining in the markets in the European morning, allowing the pair to break above the recent attempt of consolidation between 1.6040 and 1.6060. In today’s main event for the pound, BoE’s Carney, Bean and Dale will testify before the Treasury Committee on the last Quarterly Inflation Report, although consensus almost ruled out a different tone from the last report. “We expect the BoE to repeat that the unexpectedly strong growth momentum is the reason that the MPC lowered its unemployment rate projection and that there could be a case for not raising the Bank Rate immediately at the 7% unemployment threshold”, observed Signe Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.

GBP/USD key levels

The pair is now up 0.20% at 1.6186 with the next resistance at 1.6241 (high Nov.25) ahead of 1.6248 (high Oct.25) and then 1.6258 (high Oct.23). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.6134 (low Nov.25) would target 1.6105 (MA10d) en route to 1.6081 (MA50d).

Strong Euro to Cut Region’s 2014 Growth

The euro, the second best-performing major currency this year, has increased so much that it will weigh on economic growth in the euro region going into 2014, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.’s Jens Nordvig. The strength of the 17-nation shared currency, which has increased 2.4 percent versus the dollar year-to-date, the most after Denmark’s krone, will trim euro area growth by 0.5 percent in 2014, said Nordvig. The shared currency was the fifth-worst performer among the greenback’s 16 most-traded counterparts in 2012.

“If you look at how much the euro has moved, and the impact that’s going to have on exports, it’s starting to be a real issue,” Nordvig, the New York-based managing director of currency research at Nomura, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio’s “Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Michael McKee. “Last year, it was a dilemma about coming up with policies that really stated very clearly the euro is here to stay. It’s an ironic situation.”

The euro depreciated 0.4 percent to $1.3508 at 12:19 p.m. in New York after earlier falling as much as 0.5 percent. The shared currency rose to $1.3832 on Oct. 25, its highest level since November 2011.

Europe’s currency climbed to a four-year high against the yen on Nov. 19 after a European Central Bank board member said policy makers must be “very careful” about using negative interest rates to counter low inflation.

The ECB is the only major central bank that hasn’t entertained the idea of quantitative easing, which means it has to consider different ways to come across as dovish in order to stem the rise in the euro, according to Nordvig.

“It’s absolutely crucial that the ECB signals more clearly that they have more tools and are willing to use them as needed,” Nordvig said. “We should see urgency, and I think hopefully the ECB will start to get more aggressive.”

The 17-nation euro has gained 6.8 percent this year, making it the best performer out of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar gained 4 percent and the yen slipped the most, 13 percent.