General Overview for 06/10/2013
I am looking at a larger term picture of Nifty. While at this stage it appears that several alternatives are present, I am giving the highest weight to the count I have attached here.
Lok at the Daily chart below and You will see that this index in a large bull market that one can label as an impulsive wave. End of the rally on 2008 is the top for wave 3 ( with fifth wave extension of a wave (5)) and then price has made a sharp decline slighty below the low of wave (4) which is typical after wave (5) extension. After sharp decline price has made another five waves to the upside and almost took out the high of wave 3. Overall the five wave structure of a higher degree has been finished (labeled as wave i and now price is in corrective decline. The first wave down of the decline has been made ( wave A) and now price is about to finish wave B of the upward smaller corrective cycle. Because it can be clearly seen that this AB structure is an overlaping and time consuming THREE waves correction, my speculation is, that apossible shape of wave ii will be in ABC Irregular Flat shape. So now I'm waiting for wave B to the upside to finish and then five wave sell-off in wave C of wave ii.
On the lower time frames there is a possibble low in wave (B) of ann extended (A)(B)(C) Irregular Flat pattern. The top of this pattern will be the top of wave B and then sell-off should happen
On even lower time frame (H4), one can see that first five impulsive waves to the upside has been done and now market is in corrective cycle wave 2. The most probabble pattern for this simple correction is ZigZag and if 61%Fibo is the top for wave (b), then equall legs target for wave (a)=(c) is indicated on chart. Nevertheless, there is another possible wave progression that include depper retracement in wave (b) up to 78.6Fibo level and thn small sell-off in wave (c). This would mean the GAP zone of orange rectangel will not be broken and reversal should be expected sooner.
Support/Resistance:
6233- Swing High
6174 - Wave 1 high
6085 - purple 78%Fibo
6020 - purple 61%Fibo
5763 - Technical Support | GAP HIGH LEVEL |
5700 - GAP LOW LEVEL
5662 - One2One Equall Legs target #1 for wave (c)
5637 - 50%Fibo | Target#2 for wave (c)
5511 - 61%Fibo
Trading Recommendations:
Bullish outlook for this market is evident in wave progression so long positions should be in play once the correction is over.
The target for the wave B is
- 6682 - 6748 if B is 23.6%Extension of Irregular Flat
-7004 - 7118 if B is 38.6% Extension of Irregular Flat.
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